Military Deployment in Afghanistan is not in India’s National Interests

With the US military involvement in Afghanistan nearing end by 2014, there are muted voices in India’s strategic community advocating deployment of the Indian military under a UN mandate in Afghanistan. Continuing for over more than a decade now, the Afghan war has perhaps been the longest war in US history. With over 2,500 coalition personnel killed and hundreds of billions spent and no long term solution yet in sight, it is worth asking whether a military involvement in Afghanistan would be in India’s interests.

The security situation in Afghanistan remains fragile and the spread and intensity of attacks by the Taliban and their supporters follow a cyclical pattern. It is now known that even the combined strategic, technological and economic strengths of some of the world’s advanced countries including this century’s lone superpower have not been able to totally neutralise armed irregulars in Afghanistan. A Carnegie report assesses that the Afghan political system’s centre of gravity—the east and the Kabul region—is gravely threatened by a Taliban advance that will take place in the spring of 2013 following the winter lull in fighting, and that 17 out of 34 provinces are likely to be under the control of the Taliban within months of the withdrawal of ISAF from Afghanistan. The situation in Afghanistan is thus essentially that of a strategic stalemate. Given this prevailing murky ground situation, should India risk an extended military deployment in Afghanistan? The simple answer is No.

The issue that needs to be considered while taking a call on an Indian military deployment in Afghanistan is that of Pakistan’s known complicity in the Afghan problem. It is well known that the documents made available by WikiLeaks in 2010 suggest that Pakistan allows representatives of its spy service to meet directly with the Taliban in secret strategy sessions to organize networks of militant groups that fight against American soldiers in Afghanistan, and even hatch plots to assassinate Afghan leaders. The killing of Osama Bin Laden in Abbottabad in a secret raid by US Special Forces has further exposed the duplicity and complicity of the Pakistani establishment.

Therefore, the burning issue is can Pakistan be relied to abandon this duplicity should a UN mandated peace keeping force be deployed in AfPak? It would be naïve to be led into this kind of belief. On the contrary, given Pakistan’s known antipathy towards India’s growing clout in Afghanistan, Pakistan may just up the ante in Jammu & Kashmir, where the grit, toil and perseverance demonstrated over the past three decades by the Indian Armed Forces in containing terrorism has now begun to show results. It is time for India to consolidate the gains made in Jammu & Kashmir, instead of allowing itself to be dragged into a proxy war in a foreign land under the facade of a Rising Regional Power.

According to a U.S. Congressional Research Service report titled “The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11” issued on March 29, 2011, over the past decade, the U.S. has spent $ 806 billion in Iraq and $ 444 billion in Afghanistan; at approximately 100 billion dollars a year, besides over 2000 fatalities till date. Can the UN or any other nation afford to commit such massive resources to the Afghan conflict on a recurring basis that is going to remain open ended for several years?

There is no denying the fact that a politically and economically stable Afghanistan is a strategic priority for India. It is also well understood that that a Taliban fundamentalist regime backed by Pakistan would not be in India’s security interests? Afghanistan is also a bridge to the landlocked, resource rich, Central Asian Region (CAR) where India wants to pursue its economic, energy and security interests. All these points are well taken. But the question that remains unanswered is: Which core/vital Indian national security interests stand threatened by ISAF withdrawal from Afghanistan that needs to be secured through a hard power projection? None is the obvious answer!!

Therefore, propositions like “a bigger military presence Afghanistan is essential” and “India must shape Afghanistan’s future”, and “an Indian military involvement in Afghanistan will shift the battleground away from Kashmir and the Indian mainland” are untenable. In fact, such a course of action may prove to be counterproductive. As a recent Rand study has observed: “Not only would such an effort require large amounts of money and manpower, it may also inspire Islamabad – which would almost certainly view increasing Indian influence in Afghanistan as a strategic defeat – to strike back at India as a result”.

Recommendations
India must not view Afghanistan through a Pakistani Prism. India’s policy in Afghanistan must be Afghan centric and not Pakistan Centric! Given the prevailing flux, India must pursue what has been aptly called as a “no strings- attached strategy” in Afghanistan, encompassing institution building, capacity enhancement, reconstruction assistance, soft power projection, and outreach to all major Afghan ethnic groups.

Measures that India could take are:

Diplomatic

New Delhi must vigorously strive for and support a stable, democratic, multi-ethnic Afghan government. This requires a consultative approach with all regional players, particularly with Iran and Russia, to ensure that Pakistani proxies do not successfully come to the centre stage in a post-ISAF political order in Afghanistan.
Strengthen ties with the all ethnic groups, viz., Pashtuns, Uzbeks, Tajiks and Hazaras, in Afghanistan. Reengaging the Northern Alliance will also significantly address India’s apprehensions with regard to Pakistan.
Military

Establish an Indian Military Training Team in Afghanistan (IMTRAT-Afghanistan). Large scale military training of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) needs to institutionalised through the establishment of an Indian Military Training Team in Afghanistan, if requested by Afghanistan. Given India’s rich experience in handling insurgencies, such a training establishment will significantly bolster the capacity of the ANSF to deal with internal challenges themselves.
Deployment of Indian Military Observers. Indian Military Observers can be deployed as part of a future UN/Regional Military Observer Group in Afghanistan post ISAF withdrawal in 2014.
Military Deployment. It would be more prudent to Wait & Watch. Should the situation stabilise with a stable National Unity Government, the deployment of up to a Battalion Group (in the time frame 2017-2020) and a Brigade Group (in the time frame of 2020-2025) only as part of a UN-mandated Peacekeeping Force may be considered.
Military Equipment. Small arms, artillery guns, tanks, ammunition, vehicles, helicopters & Tactical Communication Equipment, etc. can be gifted to the Afghan National Security Forces.
Economic & Developmental Assistance

Besides the promised economic aid, deployment of Civil Reconstruction teams, establishment of hospitals and other mega projects like road-rail network, schools, telecommunications, airlines, food storage, electricity, water, sanitation, etc. need to be given a fillip. In the longer run, besides ensuring development, these projects would generate employment and wean the Afghan youth away from the fundamentalist ideology.

Conclusion
The Afghanistan conflict reflects long-standing rivalries among the different ethnic and tribal groups within the country, but it has long been exacerbated by outside powers seeking to protect or advance their own interests. New Delhi must not complicate matters further by viewing Afghanistan as a battleground between India and Pakistan. Instead, India, as a responsible regional power, should steer Afghanistan towards political stability, security through an inclusive government, economic growth, reconstruction and regional integration, which is what that country needs the most.

A global review of GM crops

 

 Background

The world population has risen from 2.6 billion in 1950 to around 7 billion now, and is predicted to rise to 9 billion by 2050. Economists project that demand for food could rise by 70% by 2050.Most of this demand is likely to be from developing countries as they have the fastest population growth rates, and the highest number of people living with chronic hunger.They are also more at risk from resource shortages and the effects of climate change.The Millennium Development Goals aim to halve the number of people living with chronic hunger by 2015 and the UN Declaration of Human Rights recognises the Right to Food.The Food Security act proposed in India also is aimed at realizing and implementing this objective.

At the same time it is now realized that pressure to increase food supply can lead to deforestation exacerbating environmental degradation and climate change. Increasing food supply without causing a net change in land use means increasing production on existing land. This makes agricultural development in developing countries a pressing need.

Agricultural Development

Agriculture is economically important to developing countries: part of the definition of a developing country is having a majority of the labour force working in agriculture.One-third of Africa’s GDP comes from agriculture, and two-thirds of the labour force is employed in it.Most farmers in developing countries work on small holdings of less than two hectares.The optimal places to improve crop yields are areas such as sub-Saharan Africa and eastern India, where most of farms are rain-fed,with low inputs in terms of soil improvements or fertiliser.

GM science

 

GM crops are described by many different names – genetically modified organisms (GMOs), genetically engineered (GE), “transgenic” or “biotech” crops. In general, these all refer to a plant carrying an inserted DNA sequence that does not occur naturally in its genome (a ‘transgene’) and which has not been created by conventional breeding.

In 2012, GM crops were commercially grown in 29 countries, including 8 in the EU, 5 in Asia and 3 in Africa, amounting to approximately 12% of global crop land. The majority (>99% by area) consist of only four crops: maize, soybean, cotton and oilseed rape. Three main classes of trait are exploited:

• IR – Insect resistance – for maize and cotton and proposed for brinjal in India
• HT – Herbicide tolerance – used for all four main crops, plus sugar beet and alfalfa
• VR – Virus resistance – used for papaya, squashes, peppers, and being developed for plums.

 

India and China grow large amounts of Bt cotton, with an estimated 90% of India’s cotton crop being GM. Bt cotton is the cotton that has been modified to produce a protein from the bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis(Bt) , which acts as an insecticide for specific groups of insects.

Potential benefits of GM

GM offers the potential to improve crops in ways that are not possible through conventional breeding, by introducing traits that plants do not possess, such as herbicide tolerance or pest resistance. GM often has the same goals as conventional plant breeding. There are many potential GM crop improvements, although most are still at early stages of development. Examples include crops:

• That can grow in marginal or undesirable conditions, for example, saline tolerant rice.
• That can better tolerate drought or flooding, helping mitigate the effects of erratic weather patterns.

GM Crops for Small farmers

Current GM research has primarily focused on global commodity crops such as maize and soya. This has produced GM crops that could be grown by smallholders, but uptake has been slow. Other vital crops including millet, sorghum, cassava and cowpea, have not been a focus for seed developers.These crops have the potential for yield and pest and disease resistance to be significantly improved, as so little work has been done on them so far.

In some countries, e.g. India, China and the Philippines, there are instances of GM crops being grown ‘illegally’. This is done by crossing GM seed with local varieties, rather than buying ‘official’ GM seed from a distributor. This is primarily done by small farmers who cannot afford the premium for GM seed, or where GM seed has not been approved for sale in their country.It poses a particular problem for seed producers where liability clauses in biosafety legislation hold the original technology producers responsible for GM seed, even if it is used in ways that were not recommended. Appropriate regulatory infrastructures and fair pricing of GM seed could help to mitigate this.

Seed saving

Saved seed (collecting seed from crops to replant the next year) is an important resource for farmers in India.One of the major criticisms of GM crops in India is that for many commercially available varieties farmers need to purchase seed every year in order to maintain yields.As much of the current research on GM crops for developing countries is publicly funded, donor agencies are starting to require GM projects to allow farmers to save their seed. For example, all GM projects being funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation require the project to allow farmers to save their seed. The Indian government is also expected to take similar steps.

The Risks of GM

There is a polarised debate over the use of GM crops.

There are numerous studies examining the evidence for benefits and disadvantages of GM, as well as the extent to which this evidence is sufficient to fully assess the risks of GM.Environmental risks include the unintentional crossing of GM crops with non-GM varieties.Field trials have shown that this is possible in closely related species.There is no evidence so far in peer-reviewed established scientific literature showing a link between commercially available GM crops and a risk to human health,but there are always uncertainties. This had become a major issue in the debate over Bt brinjal in India.

There is also some evidence of GM crops causing environmental damage,although proponents claim this is limited to pre-commercial crops, and the ecosystem recovered within a few years.Because of the diversity of agricultural systems in different areas, it is difficult to generalise about the possible risks and benefits of GM crops. Any crop should be thoroughly assessed with regard to the technical, ecological, and economic, as well as the social risks posed in different contexts.Other solutions, including infrastructure, policy and institutional solutions, all need to be evaluated in order to determine if GM has a contribution to make to an agricultural development issue.

GM as a Component of Agricultural Development

• GM is not a single solution for all the problems facing agriculture in developing countries or even India. It has success in specific cases against particular problems. Current commercial varieties only combat problems with some pests and diseases. However, wider agricultural development issues also need to be addressed, for example:
• Crop storage and getting crops to market before they spoil. The Indian Government estimates that up to 40% of fruit and vegetables rots in the fields or on the way to market, and grains are also rendered inedible because of a lack of rodent-free cool storage.A lack of paved roads can cause food to spoil during transportation, particularly if it needs to meet international quality standards.
• Ensuring mechanisms are in place to allow benefits to reach poor and marginal famers, for example giving farmers access to crop insurance, which will protect them financially in the event of adverse weather conditions.
• There are also other agricultural improvements where GM could play a role, but other strategies may provide more cost-effective interventions. For example:
• Improving access to irrigation, which alone could in some cases increase agricultural yields by 100-400%.GM could develop plants that use water more efficiently, but improving access to irrigation through infrastructure development could be quicker and more cost effective.
• Improving soil fertility through increasing soil organic and nutrient content, as all crops require uptake of soil nutrients to achieve the best yields, even if they are modified to fix nitrogen, or have improved photosynthesis.
• Increasing resilience to extreme weather events, such as drought and flooding could be achieved by introducing drought or flooding tolerance into plants, or through improved agronomic practices such as ridge-and-furrow planting and mixed cropping.

Regulatory mechanism

One of the major problems in the development of biotechnology in India has been the lack of an effective regulatory mechanism with well defined procedures. This was also one of the key lessons drawn from the Bt brinjal fiasco. It is in this context that the Government has prepared a bill to set up a new biotechnology regulatory authority.

The draft bill seeks setting up of a biotechnology regulatory authority to regulate manufacture, import and use of organisms and products of modern bio-technology. The Biotechnology Regulatory Authority of India will be an autonomous regulatory body comprising a chairperson, two whole-time members and two part-time members.The proposed Biotechnology Regulatory Authority of India (BRAI) will assess the safety and efficacy of biotechnology products leaving decisions on commercialisation and use to other central and state agencies.

The draft bill provides for setting of inter-ministerial governing board to oversee the performance of the Authority and a National Biotechnology Advisory Council of stakeholders to provide feedback on use of organisms and products of biotechnology in society.
The bill also provides for an elaborate risk assessment process involving scientific panels of experts and representatives of concerned ministries including special public review system for evaluation of applications before final approvals.

Critics however claim that this system will be dominated by the biotech industry and its lobby as it will be largely influenced by the Department of science and technology and the department of biotechnology. In any case India needs to move forward rapidly in order to ensure that it is not left behind the technology developments currently underway.